A rainfall shortfall deserves attention, but it is not a complete crop forecast. For buyers of cumin, fennel and sesame, the useful question is how weather, planting decisions, existing stocks and competing origins combine to affect available supply.
What the Indian evidence tells us
IMD’s end-of-season assessment reports June–September 2026 rainfall for India at 87% of the long-period average. The national figure establishes a rainfall concern; it does not establish an identical deficit across Gujarat and Rajasthan or a uniform impact on their crop-growing districts. Regional distribution and the timing of rain matter.
The Directorate of Arecanut and Spices Development’s second advance estimates for 2025–26 report approximately 5% lower cumin production and 18% lower fennel production compared with 2024–25. The directorate attributes these declines mainly to reduced acreage in Gujarat following low prevailing prices and, for fennel, farmers moving to alternatives.
These production estimates concern the earlier crop year. They should not be presented as proof of the size of the crop harvested in 2027, or as a measured consequence of the 2026 monsoon.
Shiva Exim’s view on the next crop
Shiva Exim sees a risk of lower Indian supply in 2027 if water constraints reduce planting or yields. This is a provisional market view, pending district rainfall, irrigation and acreage evidence.
This outlook reflects the company’s concern about rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Before turning that concern into a production forecast, we want to see crop-specific planting progress and water availability in the relevant districts. A decline is a possibility, not an established outcome.
Fennel illustrates why irrigation needs to be considered alongside rainfall. ICAR–NRCSS guidance describes its main cool-season sowing window and highlights irrigation during flowering and seed formation. Water available to farmers during the growing season can change the outcome even after a weak monsoon.
Sesame: India, Brazil and Pakistan
For India, buyers should distinguish the crop season and region being discussed, and separate total seed output from the volume meeting their quality specification. A crop-size headline cannot tell a processor how much suitable material is available.
IBRAFE’s Brazilian sesame update for 2026 flags potentially tighter supply. We treat this as an industry outlook rather than a final production count. For Brazil and Pakistan, our comparison will track acreage, harvest progress, sample quality, carryover stocks and dated export offers. We have not verified comparable current-season national tonnage for Pakistan and will not substitute historical output or export shipments for a crop estimate.
Cumin: India, Egypt and China
Indian planting and output need to be assessed alongside stocks and demand. China belongs in the comparison both as a growing origin and as a buyer: changes in domestic availability may influence import requirements, but that relationship needs actual crop and trade evidence.
For Egypt, the useful comparison is exportable availability at the required specification and shipment timing. Comparable current-season production totals for Egypt and China remain unverified in this update. We are not assigning either origin an unsupported tonnage or percentage change.
Fennel: India and Egypt
Our India–Egypt comparison will cover crop-year availability, colour, seed size, purity, moisture and buyer-required testing. Supplier offers should identify the lot and quality basis; an origin name alone is not a specification. We have not verified a comparable current Egyptian national fennel crop estimate.
What buyers can do now
- Request the crop year, origin and specification with each offer.
- Compare dated quotations on the same currency, packing and shipment basis.
- Check samples and required test results before agreeing commercial terms.
- Watch acreage, irrigation and carryover stocks as well as rainfall.
A smaller harvest does not automatically produce a higher market price. Existing stocks, buyer demand and supply from other origins can offset a production decline. This article contains no firm price forecast or live quotation.
Sources and scope
- IMD: end-of-season monsoon assessment, 30 September 2026
- DASD: second advance estimates for 2025–26
- ICAR–NRCSS: Advance Production Technology of Fennel
- IBRAFE: Brazilian sesame market update 2026
Evidence checked on 12 October 2026. Government estimates, industry outlooks and Shiva Exim’s opinion are identified separately. Comparable crop figures are omitted where verification is incomplete. This is market commentary; product availability and commercial terms require a separate quotation.
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